Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/13/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), had been laboring at new highs, near 2120. Then, last Friday it broke down below support at 2090, which turned the chart bearish.

Equity-only put ratios curled upwards late last week and gave confirmed sell signals on both the weighted and standard ratios. See Figures 2 and 3.

Market breadth oscillators had been on sell signals. But they reached oversold status, and now both have rolled over to buy signals, after two days of positive breadth.

Volatility indices only rose modestly during this latest selloff. However, $VIX did close above 16 and thereby established a budding uptrend (red line on $VIX chart, Figure 4). An uptrend in $VIX is bearish for stocks, so this indicator is rated as a "sell" now.

In summary, the picture became bearish when $SPX broke below 2090. But the outlook is mixed now, with some indicators on sells and some on buys. A close above 2090 would be a bullish development, while a violation of this week's lows (2040) would be bearish.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.