Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/26/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The reversal off the December lows was sharp, powerful, and even record-setting. The chart of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has returned to a bullish status, now that new all-time intraday and closing highs have been registered.

Seasonality is playing a bullish role as well. We are now in the Santa Claus rally (last 5 trading days of one year and the first two of the next year). Plus we are headed into a year ending in '5,' and those have been extremely bullish throughout history. The only bearish indicator that we have in our arsenal right now is the equity-only put-call ratio. Both the standard and weighted ratios continue to move higher, despite the broad market rally. Thus they remain on sell signals.

Market breadth has been positive on the rally, although not overly so. Regardless, both of the breadth oscillators that we follow are on buy signals and are in modestly overbought territory.

Volatility indices have decreased substantially since the lows of mid-December. $VIX has resumed a bullish status for the stock market, and that is bullish. Stocks can advance as long as VIX is meandering around at these extremely low levels.

In summary, the indicators are nearly all bullish, and short-term buy signals remain in effect. We are officially in the seasonally bullish Santa Claus Rally period, which lasts through the second trading day of 2015 (which is Monday, January 5th). And then we'll be in the new year, with potentially other positive seasonals. This is all something of a perfect storm, and we probably won't have any true negative setups until well into the new year.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.