Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/4/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) made new all-time intraday and closing highs on consecutive days this week.  That, coupled with some new buy signals from breadth makes our intermediate-term outlook bullish.

Countering the bullish case is the fact that the equity-only put- call ratios have stubbornly remained on sell signals, but this might be protective hedging activity.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been very supportive of the bullish case.  We have two new buy signals from breadth, plus the cumulative advance-decline line made a new all-time high.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have remained subdued, which is bullish as well.  As long as $VIX remains below 16, that is generally bullish for stocks.

In summary, the indicators are generally bullish, with the exception of the equity-only put-call ratio (which might be distorted by hedging).  As long as $SPX remains at or above 1870-1880, we will retain an intermediate-term bullish outlook.

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