Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/27/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has been bouncing around within a trading range for nearly a month now. There is resistance at 1880+ (the all-time highs) and there is support at 1840 (most recently tested a couple of weeks ago). There is validity to the theory that it is being wound up like a coiled spring, and could therefore explode with some force once the range's limits are broken.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. That is, they continue to rise (Figures 2 and 3). When a put-call ratio is trending higher, that is bearish for the underlying.

Market breadth has been fairly negative recently, and both of the breadth indicators that we follow are on sell signals as well.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST), however, present the other point of view. The "spike peak" buy signal from March 18th remains in effect, and as long as $VIX lingers at relatively low levels, that too is bullish for stocks.

In summary, there are still conflicting signals: volatility is bullish, put-call ratios and breadth are bearish, and $SPX is trapped in a trading range. The issue won't be resolved until $SPX breaks out of that 1840-1880 trading range.

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