Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/6/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

From a broad viewpoint, using our indicators, the picture is actually fairly bearish except for one major thing: the price chart of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has not broken down. A decline below 1780 would also interrupt the bullish pattern that currently exists of higher highs and higher lows on the $SPX chart.

Equity-only put-call ratios are mixed. The weighted ratio, as you can see in Figure 3, has started to move higher. That is bearish for stocks, and the sell signal is clear. The standard ratio is not as clear.

Market breadth continues to be relatively weak. Both breadth indicators are on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have finally joined the bearish side of the ledger as well, since $VIX has broken out over 14.

In summary, despite a mounting array of sell signals, we would not sell this market unless $SPX can close below 1780.

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