Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/19/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This market is getting very interesting. It has been under pressure all week, and volatility has increased dramatically. In fact, most of the indicators have turned bearish -- except for the most important one: price. $SPX has held above the 1540 support level, and if this turns out to be a third successful bottom in that area, one would expect the market to challenge the recent highs. However, with the weight of the evidence on the other side (i.e., bearish), it would seem likely that a full-blown, intermediate-term correction is about to ensue. But only a close below 1540 can verify such a bearish view.

Equity-only put-call ratios have been on sell signals for some time and still are.

Market breadth indicators are on also sell signals.

Volatility indices $VIX and $VXO) have exploded to the upside this week. As a result, it is possible that $VIX is establishing an uptrend. That would be bearish for stocks.

In summary, there are quite a few negative technical indicators. But as long as $SPX continues to close above the horizontal red line in Figure 1 (drawn roughly at 1538), the bulls have a chance to remain in control.

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