Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/1/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The quiet sleep-walking phase of the market seems to have ended, although that doesn't mean that the bulls have relinquished control. The chart of $SPX has widened out a bit, with support at the weekly low of 1485 and resistance at last week's highs at 1530.

One set of indicators that is bearish is the equity-only put- call ratios.  As you can see from Figure 2 and 3, the ratios began to climb last week and are still rising, despite the market's rally this week.  A rising put-call ratio is bearish for stocks.

Market breadth indicators rolled over to sell signals with last week's decline, but those signals have since been canceled out by the strong rally this week.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have had extremely wild action. $VIX exploded from 12 to 19 in just a few days, and then fell back to almost 14.  That spike peak in $VIX was a buy signal for stocks.

In summary, the bears may have dropped the ball this week, but they are likely to get another chance very soon. 

Sign up for The Option Strategist Weekly Updater to receive this market commentary delivered to your inbox each Friday for free.