Weekly Commentary 11/9/12

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poors 500 Index ($SPX) continues to break down through important support levels. It is the close below 1395 that matters.  This should activate targets as low as 1330, although it probably won't be in a straight line, for $SPX worked back and forth between 1330 and 1370 in July, and that range should provide some support.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain bearish.  There was a severe "wiggle" in the standard ratio this week, but that has been ironed out, and both ratios are moving to new highs.

Market breadth has been negative, but not extremely so. The breadth indicators have only now begun to descend into oversold territory.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have perhaps been the most bullish of the indicators, in that they haven't exploded to the upside. A close above 19 and then 21 would be more bearish moves by $VIX.

In summary, the overall picture has taken on a bearish slant with the breakdown on the $SPX chart. We would not expect this to last beyond Thanksgiving, but there could be some more damage up to that point.

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