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Weekly Commentary 6/17/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market has had a rough week as the dominant bearish traits of this market have emerged.  A couple of oversold rallies have been attempted, but they have been unusually weak.  The chart of $SPX is in a downtrend and that is the major trademark of this market.

The equity-only put-call ratios are both on sell signals.  They are continuing to rise rapidly, and thus might be considered oversold, but they will be bearish until they roll over and begin to trend downward. 

The breadth indicators are on sell signals, and are in oversold territory.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) are perhaps the most in the last few weeks.  At the current time, $VIX has broken out to the upside, establishing an uptrend on the $VIX chart.  That is bearish for stocks.

The big picture is bearish.  All of the intermediate-term indicators are on sell signals. However, short-lived oversold rallies are possible.

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