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Weekly Commentary 6/10/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market has been under more selling pressure in the last two weeks than in the previous nine months.  Intermediate-term indicators are all bearish at the current time, but after five weeks of selling, some oversold conditions have arisen.      

First, the chart of $SPX is in a downtrend, and that is bearish.      

The equity-only put-call ratios (Figures 2&3) have remained on sell signals since mid-April.  They are racing higher now, and by their sheer height might be considered a bit oversold.      

Breadth has been very negative.  Breadth indicators have been on sell signals for some time.      

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) spiked up to nearly 20 last Friday, when the market sold off sharply on bad unemployment numbers.  That was supposedly bullish, but no rally materialized, and so we view $VIX as slightly bearish at this time.      

In summary, the intermediate-term indicators are negative (with the possible exception of $VIX).  The oversold conditions may foster a rally, but as long as $SPX is trending downward, the bears are in charge. 

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