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February 2018

By Lawrence G. McMillan

February 2018 was a very nasty month for stocks. For some time, we have been mentioning the similarities between current action and that of late 2017 and early 2018: a long rally has taken place, accelerating in January; there have been multiple failed mBB sell signals; put-call ratios are extremely overbought; new highs have completely dominated new lows, etc. And others are watching this as well. In late January 2018, a number of sell signals occurred almost all at once: there was an mBB sell signal, breadth oscillator sell signals, equity-onlyput-call ratio sell signals, VIX began to rise, and new lows exceeded new highs. All of these occurred on or before February 1st, 2018. By February 2nd, the market was collapsing and by February 9th, 2018 – in a matter of just 5 trading days – the entire rally of over four months had been wiped out.

The Expected Return Calculator

Expected Return Calculator Screenshot

Use statistical analysis to evaluate potential positions

The Expected Return Calculator is McMillan’s proprietary analytical software that uses statistical analysis to evaluate complex option positions, in order to give the trader an idea of whether or not there is a probability of success in a trade.

The Probability Calculator

Probability Calculator Screenshot

Simulate the probability of making money in your stock or option position.

McMillan’s Probability Calculator is low-priced, easy-to-use software designed to estimate the probabilities that a stock will ever move beyond two set prices—the upside price and the downside price—during a given amount of time. The program uses a technique known as Monte Carlo Simulation to produce estimates that assess the probability of making money in a trade, but can also be used by traders to determine whether to purchase or sell stock, stock options, or combinations thereof.

Option Evaluation Software

Option Evaluation Software

Determine theoretical option prices with this advanced Black-Scholes Calculator

Larry McMillan stresses in his seminars and books that option traders must always trade with a model. The Option Evaluation Software is that model. Using the Black-Scholes model, The Option Evaluation Software calculates option values and related statistics, such as implied volatility and "the Greeks,” and displays them in a clean, easy-to-read grid-like display. It is a necessary piece of software for any serious option trader.

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