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One can hardly rely on technical levels at this time

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Yesterday had all the earmarks of panic selling, but it has shaken the confidence that had been gathered throughout the strong October rally.  Once again, it seems that the majority of the major players are still acting in a like manner daily, so that these wilder-than-usual swings take place. $SPX sliced all the way down through the supposed support at 1220-1230, and traded as low as 1215.

Weekly Commentary 10/28/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Today’s move saw $SPX blow right through the resistance at 1260 and also through the 200-day  moving average at 1272. Those are both significant levels to have overcome.  The market may have to spend some time around the 200-day moving average, as it often does when it passes through that level, but the next higher targets of 1310 and then the yearly highs at 1350-1370 should be within range fairly soon.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals.

Another October Bottom

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Once again, it appears the October has become the “bear killer.” Yes, volatility is still high and put volume is still heavy, so there are clearly worries out there. But it’s normal for there to be plenty of worries at the beginning of a new bullish phase. In this article, we’re going to look at some other similar October bottoms in the past to see how the market unfolded at those times.

In focus: Bulls take charge

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index, finally broke out of the tight 1190-1220 range this week — to the upside. Since then there have been two attempts to pull back, but they have met support near 1220, and so that is now a confirmed support area.

Weekly Commentary 10/21/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market remains volatile within an ever-narrowing range. For ten days now, $SPX has traded within a range of 1190 to 1230. Clearly a breakout of that range should be significant.

Equity-only put-call ratios are a bit mixed. The weighted ratio rolled over to a buy signal about two weeks ago, but the standard ratio has continued to climb -- thereby remaining on a sell signal.

Breadth indicators continue to remain on buy signals, and they have reached varying degrees of overbought.

The stock market is at a crucial juncture

By Lawrence G. McMillan

MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, reached a very important point: the top of the trading range, near 1,220-1,230. The trip to get to this point has been an interesting one.

In focus: Awaiting resolution

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A week ago, we stated that the market was at a crucial juncture — that it had rallied to the 1,220-1,230 area on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and that it was either going to break out to the upside or retrace to the bottom of the trading range. What has happened is that the market has remained volatile around that area, but that so far there has not been a resolution of the bullish and bearish forces.

VIX October Futures settle at 33.15

The October VIX Futures settled at 33.15 this morning, down 57 cents from last month's settlement.  This is the third month in a row that the futures expired with a value above 30.  This hasn't occured since the 2008 crash.

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A VIX-ing Paradox

By Lawrence G. McMillan
Source: Barron's

Traders of volatility derivatives -- futures, options, or exchange-traded funds and notes -- often wonder why the VIX, or the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, moves much more violently than do the derivative contracts that are based on it.

The Market is Presenting a Difficult Choice

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This market is now presenting a difficult choice.  It has continued to gain ground almost every day, adding to its overbought condition (the "stocks only" oscillator is above +600, for example), and it is right at the top of the trading range.  In addition, futures traded up 7 points or so overnight.  In the past two months, these conditions would be screaming for a sell, and indeed the market is having its worst day in a while, by far, today.   However, this seems to be a very delayed reaction.

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