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Refining the Successful $VIX Spike Peak Buy Signals

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Once again, a $VIX “spike peak” buy signal is working out very well. This powerful indicator generated a buy signal as of the close of trading on Monday, August 11th. $SPX has been up six of seven days since then, gaining over 50 points.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/15/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

After an ugly day on Thursday, August 7th, followed by a further decline of 13 $SPX points during the overnight session, stocks have rallied steadily.  Most observers are saying that the correction is over and that the bulls are back in charge.  That may be true, but the evidence is not completely in favor of the bulls, yet.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/8/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart remains bearish after having broken down through 1950. $SPX sliced right through the next support level at 1925, and after temporarily holding at 1915, appears ready to test the major support level at 1900.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals (see Figures 2 & 3). They are both rising steadily, and as long as they are trending higher, that is negative for stocks.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/1/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The genie is now out of the bottle, and it's going to be very hard to put him back in again. $SPX has broken major support at 1950, and that changes things: the chart of $SPX is no longer bullish; it is now bearish.

Equity-only put-call charts continue to remain on sell signals. These put-call ratios will remain bearish until they roll over and begin to trend downwards.  It doesn't appear that will happen anytime soon.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/25/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has now traded at a new all-time intraday high for the last three days, and it closed at a new all-time high the last two. Those new highs have been confirmed by some of the other indicators, but some are still on sell signals. $SPX has support at 1950, and that has proven to be very strong.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They have been steadily rising for nearly two weeks.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/18/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Well, the market finally found something it couldn't shake off -- at least not right away -- on the geopolitical front. Normally, this wouldn't be a big deal, but an overbought, somewhat nervous market can react to this type of news dramatically, and it did. So what is the real overall effect?

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/11/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

For the first time in a while, some sell signals are beginning to creep into our indicators, and the broad stock market is selling off. So far, the damage has been controlled, but Thursday's sharply down opening shows that there is the potential for some heavy selling if there is perceived danger. $SPX has support at 1950 and 1925, and even at 1900 below that.

Equity-only put-call ratios are in agreement, and they are both on sell signals.

Hedging With Volatility Options $VIX $VXO

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We have written many articles in the past about how to hedge a portfolio with $VIX options, but in this article we are going to expand the discussion somewhat.  Not only are there more products than mere $VIX options, but the concepts of hedging with volatility options extends beyond mere portfolio protection into quasi-arbitrage strategies and then into more creative speculative (but still hedged) strategies. 

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/3/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX is once again making new all-time highs. $SPX now has support at or near the 1950 area, which was the low of the most recent "correction." Below that there is support at 1925, where $SPX bottomed last week. The major support is at 1900, where a lot of work was done between March and May.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/27/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

There is support for $SPX at or just below 1950. In addition, there is support at 1925 (the lows from a couple of weeks ago), and then there is major support at 1900.

The one deteriorating area among our main indicators is the equity-only put-call ratios. Both have started to rise over the past three days, and the weighted ratio is now officially on a sell signal.

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