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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market. $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside. There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/10/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has traded in an ever-narrowing range for over a month now. The most recent range has been bounded by 2090 on the upside and 2050 on the downside. But now $SPX is trying to break through 2090. Even if that is accomplished, there is still considerable overhead resistance at 2110-2120 (the all-time highs).

Most of the other indicators have taken on a more positive slant in the last week or so. As a prime example, the equity-only put-call ratios have turned bullish.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/3/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX couldn't develop any momentum this week. Perhaps -- as the media were saying -- stocks were just waiting for the jobs report this morning. It was a very poor jobs report, and S&P futures are down 20 points. If $SPX does indeed open 20 points lower on Monday morning, that will be a violation of the 2040 support area. With that support level broken, $SPX prices are likely to test the lower support near 2000 or slightly lower.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/27/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

When $SPX broke down through the 2090 support level, that was a very negative sign, especially since stocks failed at the old highs.

There is now strong resistance at 2110-2120 (the February and March peaks), as well as at 2090 (again). As for support, the initial support level will be 2040, the early March lows. Below that, there is support at 1970-1990, which is the area of the December and January lows.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/20/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

In figure 1, the support at 2040 and the resistance at the recent all-time highs of 2120 are marked as a trading range. Until $SPX breaks out of that range, it really doesn't have a trend in place. To support that conclusion, the indicators are somewhat mixed.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals during this latest rally.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/13/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), had been laboring at new highs, near 2120. Then, last Friday it broke down below support at 2090, which turned the chart bearish.

Equity-only put ratios curled upwards late last week and gave confirmed sell signals on both the weighted and standard ratios. See Figures 2 and 3.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/27/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market continues to move higher, albeit at a very slow pace. That makes the $SPX chart bullish, of course, and it will remain bullish as long as $SPX holds above support. The highest support level is the 2090-2100 range that $SPX traded in last week.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/20/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has finally broken out to new all-time highs and has maintained that status by closing above the old highs for four consecutive days. That's the bullish news. The less-than-bullish news is that the breakout is not being confirmed with any resound by some of the other indicators. However, as long as $SPX remains above the 2065 support level, the bulls are in charge.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/13/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has finally broken out of the 1990-2065 trading range that had contained it for nearly two months. The breakout was not easily achieved, nor is it uniformly confirmed by all of the other indicators, but it is in place.

As for support, there should be ample support at 2065 and at several levels below that, all the way to the bottom of the trading range, at 1990.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/6/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has had a strong week. Even so, $SPX remains within the general confines of the 1990-2065 trading range, on a closing basis. We still await a breakout from that range in order to establish an intermediate-term trend.

In something of a surprise, both equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals after Tuesday's trading this week. The computer programs that we use to monitor these charts were right on top of this new signal.

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